weekend notes

Hope all goes well… They sat in silence. One hundred billionaires, surrounded by their 2,200 political peers, all fantastically wealthy. Some still remembered Mao’s Great Leap Forward, when 45mm peasants died of starvation, one misstep in his thousand mile march, 1958-62. Most did not. But they all reflected on their triumph over Soviet Communism. Since its collapse in 1991, Russian real GDP is ne

Hope all goes well… “What’s the endgame?” bellowed Biggie Too, in baritone. “What’s the final moment?” barked the Chief Global Strategist for one of Wall Street’s too big to fail affairs, letting the verse float like a bubble, warping, distorting, morphing in the autumn air. “It started with liquidity and it’s ending with technology,” hummed Too. “Big money, big tech. Big tech, big money. Uh huh.

Hope all goes well… “My wife is a four-time veteran, she told me to suck it up, an epidural is the least of my problems,” I said to Wesley. “Yeah, she’s got a point sweetheart, you’re not going to be doing a lot of pushing,” said my nurse. “You see all I’m going to do is inject this little bit of something into your drip and all you’re going to do for me is count backwards from thirty to twenty.”

Hope all goes well… “My colleagues and I may have misjudged the strength of the labor market, the degree to which longer-run inflation expectations are consistent with our inflation objective, or even the fundamental forces driving inflation,” admitted our Fed Chairwoman. “Our understanding of the forces driving inflation is imperfect, and we recognize that something more persistent may be respons

Hope all goes well… “Just back from Tokyo,” said the strategist. “Closed door session kind of trip.” Twenty top Japanese and Chinese investors, business leaders. “Not a single one was terribly bothered by Kim Jong Un, it’s the other haircut they’re worried about.” No one has yet made a material portfolio adjustment. A few bought some Nikkei puts. “They’ve learned to live with crazy North Korean Ki

Hope all goes well… “As a safety, you can’t let anyone get behind you Charlie,” I said, driving my 3rd grader, coaching, gameday. “The strange thing about football is that the harder you hit your opponent, the less it hurts,” I explained, as he watched late summer roll by, window down, helmet in lap. “Wanna know something amazing Daddy?” he asked. “Hydrangeas can grow into trees, with the same hug

Hope all goes well… “They’ve retraced back to election levels,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “That often happens, not all that unusual, though it surprised most people this time.” US 10-year bond yields closed Friday at 2.06%, just below the November 9th post-election close. “Stocks have not done the same.” The S&P 500 remains 12% above the Nov 9th close. “Bu

Hope all goes well… “Awesome day Dad,” said Olivia, talking fast, braces, braids, 2nd day at her new school. “Teachers are great, kids are super nice.” I smiled, driving home. “Just one problem, three different girls asked me to be their roommate for the school trip to Boston.” I waited for an explanation. “And I said yes to all three without really thinking.” No doubt, getting caught short can be

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about pain, nonlinearity (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, to squeeze in a little more reading. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese bank leverage declines $270bln YTD (1st decline in 7yrs), Bannon fired (returns to Breitbart), Trump to prioritize tax reform, Trump