weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2012 about training, climbing (see below). I take my late-summers off from writing, and try to squeeze in a little more reading. See you again in Sept with full weekend notes. But expect something sooner from me on volatility. An opportunity approaches, we’re launching a fund to capture it. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Abe denies cro

Hope all goes well… “Did a frog just hit the window?” I asked Mara, as the riot raged. “If they’re having a frog fight, I’m gonna to kill ’em,” she replied. We’d sent the kiddies to paddle in the pond with neighbors, so we could have a quiet drink. “But no going in the water, you’re in pajamas,” Mara had ordered. In stormed Charlie, covered in algae. “We all accidently fell in,” he declared, shock

Hope all goes well… “Do you want to live there?” asked Charlie (8), pedaling next to Mara, skirting the border of our local farm, “You love barns Mommy.” And she laughed. “I don’t think so Charlie, I love our home, and besides, this farm costs a fortune.” 63 waterfront acres offered at $175mm. No one told the farmer that 2 & 20 was last season’s crop. “What if I just gave it to you mommy, what

Hope all goes well… “Understanding 2017 performance is simple,” said the investor. “There are two distinct groups,” he continued. “Managers trading the turn and managers riding the wave.” Professional investors all acknowledge we’re late cycle. But we differ on where late-cycle meets land’s-end. “Most managers have been trading the turn this year, while a few are giving the market more time – most

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about taking shots (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Happy 4th of July! Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Italian E17bln bailout of 2 banks, EU iTraxx financials 51bps (below EU corporates at 53bps for 1st time since 2011), UK conservatives strike deal with DUP, UK consumer credit growth decelerates, German busin

Hope all goes well… I am two-hundred years old. I’ve never repaid my debts. In fact, I’ve defaulted eight times, most recently in 2002. No, I’m not Donald Trump. But I did just borrow $2.75bln for 100yrs from folks who manage other people’s retirement savings for a living. None of these investors will be alive at maturity, nor have the people who repay this debt been born yet. There’s no chance th

Hope all goes well… “I got another one of those questions that you can’t answer Mommy,” said Charlie, buckled in the backseat. “Let’s call Sitaprana,” suggested Mara, dialing our spiritual go-to, Vedanta nun – a California connection. “Hi Charlie, what’s up?” asked Sita. “Well, I’m wondering what heaven looks like?” he asked, earnest. Without pause, she answered, “Close your eyes, look within, you

Hope all goes well… “That’s right, we need a TRAVEL BAN for certain DANGEROUS countries, not some politically correct term that won’t help us protect our people!,” tweeted Trump, following the London attack. “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar – look!,” continued our Commander in Chie

Hope all goes well… “Can we keep these tadpoles Daddy?” asked Charlie and Teddy. I shook my head, paternal reflex. “We already have two turtles and a bullfrog. So why not?” they pleaded, forgetting our countless other pets. And in their defense, once you expand a balance sheet past the point of absurd, why ever stop? But having lost virtually every such battle waged in recent years, I grasped for