weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “How’s he going to cut taxes and make it revenue neutral?” asked the CIO. “How’s he going to do massive infrastructure when we’re so deep in debt?” he continued. “And why is the yield curve flattening? Why is loan demand declining? Why is consumer confidence at historic highs while retailer stocks are getting demolished?” He paused to catch his breath. And still panting asked,

Hope all goes well… “Where’s the beef?” bellowed Biggie Too. “Health care, regulation reform, tax cuts – where’s it at?” continued the Chief Global Strategist for one of those too big to fail affairs. “You boys were always gonna face this moment,” barked Biggie, sliding into a slow groove. “But here’s the thing brotha. The market doesn’t care about health care – you know that. Poor people ca

Hope all goes well… “I suck,” he said with a sigh. “But I think my family still loves me,” he continued, trying to make himself laugh but failing. “I got absolutely killed in January. Then I turned it around after that Trump speech in Feb.” He paused, a long one. I hugged him through the phone. We’ve all been there, it’s brutal. “Then I don’t even know what went wrong. Which admittedly doesn’t mak

Hope all goes well… “My father was born in 1900, and lived through the great depression, hyperinflation, two world wars, a Russian prison camp, and so forth,” said the German in perfect English, over lunch, looking out across the river Limmat, from Zurich’s Hotel Storchen, established 1357. “He would tell me and my brothers, the world does not wait boys, it does not stop turning.” Swans paddled ag

Hope all goes well… “Un peu,” I answered. That means ‘a little.’ Which is about how much French I’ve retained after all these years. I’ve snuck into the Alps for a couple days with an old friend, 7th generation high-altitude mountain guide. And he’d asked if my legs were tired after five hours, knee-high in the forest, a late-season blizzard upon us. “Mon petit nature,” I continued, breathless, be

Hope all goes well… “You know the thing about being in the middle?” asked Teddy, over a one-on-one dinner. “I annoy Jackson, Jackson bullies me. I bully Charlie and Charlie annoys me,” explained my middle son. “So out of the three of us, I’m the only one who gets annoyed and bullied.” I laughed, as did he. You see, Teddy finds the humor in things. It’s there for those who look. He falls asleep rea

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2015 about the power of patience (see below). Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Chinese iron ore and copper prices jump 7%, Japan GDP -0.3 to +1.0%, India CPI 3.17% (5yr low), Macron says Russia is hacking his campaign, German wholesale inflation 4.0% (6yr high), OPEC cuts Jan oil output 1.1mm bar

Hope all goes well… “All further migration from mainly Muslim countries should be stopped,” was the statement published by Chatham House, a prominent London-based independent think tank, before Trump announced his Muslim ban. 10,000 Europeans responded to the poll as follows: EU Total (55% agree with the statement, 20% disagree, the balance neither agreed nor disagreed), Belgium (64% agree, 15% di

Hope all goes well… “You know how I’m really nice?” asked Charlie (7) at the dinner table. And we all smiled, never knowing what comes next with this kid. After all, I called him Osama bin Charlie for the first time when he was three and it stuck for good reason. “Seriously, you have no idea? Go ahead, take a guess,” he taunted, a little irritated. We all shrugged. “Well, when I get out on that la