weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote about unconventional policies from Feb 2015 (see below). Happy Fourth. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats expressed in YoY terms): Mon: Renminbi hits new lows, Israel/Turkey restore full diplomatic relations, EU M3 +0.3 to +4.9%, Spain’s People’s Party (Rajoy) wins 33% of votes, Italy wage growth record lows, BIS warns of “

Hope all goes well… “What does it mean to leave the EU?” was Google UK’s top EU-related question following the Brexit vote. “What is the EU?” was the 2nd most popular. “Which countries are in the EU?” ranked 3rd. “What will happen now that we’ve left the EU?” came in 4th, though it should’ve been 1st. And when I typed “Why” into Google, of the infinite potential auto-fills, it selected “Brexit?” a

Hope all goes well… “Japanese stocks are down 25% from last year’s peak,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “If our market fell 25% we’d be jumping out of buses – which is what we’d be riding.” Gulfstream G6s blinked overhead, filling the skies, Aspen fire flies. “Savers have been forced into so many risky investments,” he said, a warm mountain breeze appeared from nowhere, then vanished. “And

Hope all goes well… “Gambling websites say Brexit’s a 3-1 bet against,” said the CIO. “And if you polled every one of us who wager for a living, I reckon 90% would say the Brits Bremain.” I mooed in agreement, nose nestled in tail, huddled in the herd. He mooed back. “But the polls are 50/50, margin-of-error kind of stuff, and they were pretty good in the Scottish referendum, the London mayoral vo

Hope all goes well… “Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead!” he cried, atop a prodigious pile of private equity. “You hear that cry at the highs of every cycle, when the feeding frenzy gives guys like me the chance to sell our overleveraged deals, our walking dead,” he continued, dizzy from so many turns. And on alert for such a sign, he paused, hearing distant cries, moans, groans. But with th

Hope all goes well… “Tough day little man?” I asked Charlie, kicking off family dinner. He looked at me, puzzled. “Your hair’s turned grey, seems premature, you’re six.” The table erupted. Jackson, Olivia, unable to contain their laughter. Teddy pounded the table, howling. Mara and I looked at one another, confused. And there sat Charlie, quiet, a sly smile. “Ok Teddy, so what happened today

Hope all goes well… “The market is not positioned for a big move to the upside,” said Roadrunner, the industry’s biggest equity vol trader. “We’ve seen massive volume in options, someone’s selling skew, distorting volatility in way you almost never see.” The consequence is option traders are heavily short futures. On weakness they buy. On a strong rally, they’ll scramble to cover. “If volatility p

Hope all goes well… “Jackson’s so dumb, he threw a rock at the ground and missed,” taunted Teddy. “Teddy’s so stupid, he put a ruler next to his bed to see how long he slept,” countered Jackson. “You’re both so ugly that when you entered an ugly contest, they said, no professionals allowed,” chortled Charlie, wiggling in. I turned our Suburban’s radio up. “Yo Mama is so done with you boys that whe

Hope all goes well… “I am the king of debt. I do love debt. I love debt and I love playing with it,” stammered The Donald, lips pursed, sitting in his sandbox, now nearer than ever to toying with mankind’s most prodigious pile of the stuff. “I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” he cried, knowing all too well that if you owe someone $1bln it’s your problem, b