weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “So here’s the question,” said the CIO, “Is pouring over balance sheets, or knowing when to pour over balance sheets, the most important thing?” I considered the profound struggle of so many legendary stock pickers that began just as the age of central bank omnipotence drew to a close. “It’s the latter,” he said, uninstalling Excel, waiting patiently for dislocations to buy, sh

“A marketing decision!” cried the FBI, furious with America’s greatest marketer. Of course the Bureau’s right. Apple’s decision to withhold an encryption key is all about pushing product. Tim Cook doesn’t love terrorists, he just hates missing sales forecasts. He knows we all hate being spied on, even though we love feeling safe. So we distrust those who protect us, up until we face a crisis. When

Hope all goes well… “Do we now know?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “Is this where QE leads?” he whispered, gazing at distant peaks, summit winds lifting their white, painting the blue. Then vanishing. “Is folly not beautiful too?” he asked, closing his eyes, growing quiet. I considered this historic ascent, led upward by so much central banking novelty. But with European stocks now 28% below t

Hope all goes well… “If you got through Jan unscathed it’ll be a great year,” said Roadrunner. “Markets will really move around, there’s going to be lots to do,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But guys who got hurt are trapped.” He stepped calmly aside, dodging an anvil. “They’ll be chasing this thing up and down, trying to get back to even.” Last January’s Swiss franc t

Hope all goes well… “I’m just going to warm them up in my mouth,” said Charlie, blanketed in his first blizzard, cheeks red, cramming ten fingers into his gob. “Works great,” I think he said, but can’t be certain. He’d insisted pajama bottoms were plenty warm for sledding. Why bother arguing? He declined my offer of mittens. I smiled, shrugged, happy to let him learn. Wolfie and Shackleton bounded

Hope all goes well… “Capital preservation time,” whispered Vice, sitting on his chair, atop the world’s highest heap of private wealth management moolah. “Advisors are fighting back tears.” The S&P 500 closed last year -0.8%, supported by a handful of big stocks. But diversified portfolios were down closer to 5%. Then the S&P fell 8% in 2 weeks. “For three years clients bought every dip. T

Hope all goes well… “Was work ok today?” asked Olivia, my 12yr old. “Good day, why do you ask?” I replied. “Well, for one, Chinese stocks went nuts,” she said. “How’d you know that?” I laughed, stunned, Greenwich. “Homeroom. We listen to news.” So I asked what else? “Brazil has a new disease carried by mosquitos that causes birth defects.” When it rains it pours. “The fight between Iran and Saudi

Hope all goes well… Wishing you and your crew a fantastic 2016. Health, adventure, discovery, prosperity. Dusted off the only anecdote I never submitted to my Editor (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China industrial profits -1.4% (prev -4.6%), Japan retail sales -1.0% (IP +1.6%), Japan/Korea reach wartime “comfort women” accord, Iraqi forces recapture Ramadi

Hope all goes well… Dug up an old anecdote about magic (see below). Back Jan 10th with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: Spain’s ruling conservatives lose parliamentary majority, German PPI -2.5%, Swiss M3 +2.7% (10mth high), EU consumer confidence weakens (Swedish jumps), Barbosa replaces Levy as Brazil Fin Min, Mexico retail sales +4.8%, Brent hits 11yr low ($36.05), SpaceX successfully l