weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Check the closets, under the beds, check every single hiding place,” ordered Teddy, tip toeing upstairs. “Here’s the thing Charlie, if we find presents, then there’s no Santa. And if we don’t, then we’ll know for sure he’s real,” continued my 10yr old, shaken by playground rumors, but still desperate to believe. Jackson overheard it all, and sprang to action, distracting Dumb

Hope all goes well… “You want to know the most interesting thing about next year?” asked Biggie Too, chief global strategist for one of Wall Street’s too big to fail affairs. I shook my head no. “They sent Biggie on a one-month global tour, put him on stage a hundred times; pensions, insurers, sovereigns, hedge funds, all the hustlers,” he boasted in baritone, flipping to third person. “And the mo

Hope all goes well… “Tough to get a good feel for where to next,” said Road Runner, wrapping up a record year. “But not many bulls up here, the recent sell-off wasn’t too uncomfortable, it’s still easier to be long stock,” continued the market’s top volatility trader. “I see a trap setting up for the market to sell off in Feb or March, but you can’t be too early for these things,” said the elusive

Hope all goes well… Family formed a semi-circle, to witness the spectacle. I squatted behind the laundry machine, wrench in hand, more focused on the gushing leak than my plumbers crack. It all started back in August, when I was too focused on Xi Jinping to consider Thanksgiving. Mara invited 40 family members to stay for three days, and claims I agreed it was a good idea. Which best I can tell is

Hope all goes well… “You know me,” said Simplicity, considering Occam’s razor. “This game is not about completing puzzles, it’s about finding pieces,” continued the CIO, leaning over to pick up this year’s last. “I know so little about so much,” he said, and paused for a moment, examining the contours of what he held. “But the Fed will hike while the ECB cuts rates in December, so the Euro will fa

Hope all goes well… Sunni versus Shia. Sharia versus secular. The search for Islam’s soul. Beirut exploded, stirring dormant dogs. Paris bled, wept, raged. Border crossings closed, the far right rose. As the Thirty Years’ War escaped its borders, spilling into Europe. And the middle-east trudged inexorably toward the Dark Ages. Dusted off an anecdote from 2011 (see below). When I had more question

Hope all goes well… “Turn to page 67,” said Wall Street’s top US equity volatility strategist, something no kid in his right mind could’ve ever dreamed of becoming. But there we were, examining his volatility-cluster chart going back to 1932. You see, when volatility jumps, it either stays elevated for a while, forming a large cluster of high readings, or it falls swiftly leaving small clusters. S

Hope all goes well… “How’d it go out there?” I asked Teddy, my third. He’d been playing lacrosse. And just dropped three passes in a row. But what he lacks in hand eye, he makes up for in attitude. Which is probably why his coaches keep him in. And while I can’t fathom that lacrosse is his thing, that’s really a question for him to answer. Something about himself to discover. “It was amazing Dad,”

Hope all goes well… “August was a trap,” said Roadrunner, looking left and right. “Almost a mirage,” continued the market’s biggest equity volatility trader. “But something tells me it was like Bear Stearns in the summer of 2007.” Having sold vol heavily into the August panic, he’s just now reversing his book. “Buying some vol here, small though, we haven’t seen the capitulation.” VIX calls still