weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “We failed at the highs and volatility barely budged,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “There were no outside forces pushing prices, just US earnings,” continued the largest S&P 500 local, winding his way upward, through fields of granite boulders, each the product of an ancient little crack. “The market fell even with Google and Amazon surging to historic highs.” And Yoda

“Remember how California got it, but New York didn’t?” asked my favorite futurist, hands-free on Highway 1. “That in itself was reason to invest.” 500% ago, when people viewed autonomous autos as outlandish, he piled into Tesla. “People now accept Elon’s vision as almost inevitable.” But the future will not simply be dominated by solar-powered, self-driving Teslas, ordered on iPhones, navigated by

Hope all goes well… “When I run massive positions, at best I feel apprehensive, but I usually feel like crap,” he admitted, lightening up enormous European longs. “I don’t know what I would’ve done on Sunday if markets had been open.” Last weekend was the most politically volatile in recent memory. “Having them closed probably saved me from myself,” he admitted, knowing stocks would’ve tanked on t

Hope all goes well… “When a market breaks more than 20%, it’s brutal,” whispered the CIO, ear to the ground, listening for sounds of opportunity. Greeks groaned, Germans grunted. “Investors mentally budget for a 10% loss, some even budget for 20%, but no one prepares for 33%.” Brazilians bawled, South Africans squealed. “So when a market falls through 20%, it usually gets a lot uglier.” Amidst Tur

Hope all goes well… “If the government’s intention is clear,” said the CIO, late at night from Hong Kong, “people will always run ahead of it.” Only the rare soul stands defiant before a determined tank. “Beijing wanted a gradual rise in stocks, but received a year’s gain every two weeks.” Policy-makers and regulators found themselves ill-equipped to deal with the proliferation of leverage across

Hope all goes well… “Completely unexpected,” he said, from Europe Saturday night. “They were so close, their differences were meaningless.” Political analysts scurried around the CIO, searching for motives, meanings, machinations. “Did Tsipras ever really want a deal? Did Merkel? Is the die now cast? How will the ECB act Sunday, Monday? When will they drop the hammer on Greek banks? Will they acti

Hope all goes well… “Landing an airplane is a complicated task, but you do the same things every time,” said Eagle, swooping down from Gotham’s highest perch, to visit my new nest. “But surfing, now that is truly complex; you’re riding a wave,” he explained, narrowing focus. “The Fed thinks they’re landing, when actually they’re surfing.” We looked out across Long Island Sound, clouds reflecting o

Hope all goes well… Pulled up to the complex. For his first lacrosse practice. A field of unfamiliar faces. So Mara asked Jackson if he’d like some company. “No Mom, I got this, I’m gonna go rock this town.” And off he went. Which officially ended our move from out West, and kicked off our new life back East. Dusted off an anecdote from back in the day. See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. We

Hope all goes well… “I could give you the greatest reasons on earth why the market’s going to implode,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “But the entire intelligent world other than Jeremy Siegel have already listed them.” Draghi asked for more volatility this week and got it. So anxious traders, eyeing surging yields, drilled stocks for the 2nd time in a month. Yet prices barely budged. “It’s natu