weekend notes

Hope all goes well… Taking my one-way ticket to the airport today. Leaving California behind; an extraordinary eleven-year adventure now complete. Heading East, a new chapter. And feeling sentimental about it all, dusted of an anecdote on winding paths (see below). Should be back next Sunday with full wknd notes. But of course moving is more stressful than death, divorce, and getting caught short

Hope all goes well… “So Yellen told us in March she doesn’t want the Euro below 1.07,” said the CIO, uncharacteristically uninspired. “And the ECB has now told us they don’t want it above 1.15,” he yawned. “Tell me, who do you want to fight?” Markets are chopping in ranges. With the exception of Chinese equities. And slowly, quietly, Japan hit 20yr highs, as the S&P 500 made a new record. “Gue

Hope all goes well… “Started getting really excited that yields were backing up as stocks were wobbling,” growled Bulldog. “That’s lights out, that’s where everyone gets eaten alive.” On an ageing planet with ample supply, deficient demand, sluggish growth and large debts, a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds would be ruinous. And every professional investor knows it. So having just tasted t

Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first

Hope all goes well… “So much information, so little knowledge,” he said, towering atop Wall Street, entrapped in ivory. “No economist knows what’s going on,” he sighed, stunned by +0.2% Q1 GDP. “None of us can explain what happened last quarter, let alone what’ll happen four quarters out.” In the real economy, there are few signs of animal spirits. “What’s the plausible explanation?” he asked, thi

Hope all goes well… “Just start talking about anything,” commanded Krakower, the show’s producer. “Let’s talk about Kaminsky’s thong,” winked Scaramucci, flashing a smile to the camera, warming up. I quietly wondered how someone who shies from bright lights ended up on TV. Kaminsky dogged Scaramucci for his Ronald Reagan hairdo. While make-up pulverized us with pretty powder. And some dude, deep i

Hope all goes well… “Jackson dumped Bella,” said my 5yr old to his best friend. “What’s dumped mean?” asked Pierce. “I dunno,” admitted Charlie, embarrassed. “Well it sounds like something you’d do in a pool,” said Pierce. “Pretty sure you can do it anywhere,” replied Charlie, regretting he ever brought it up, turning to me for help, “Daddy, tell Pierce what dumped means.” And the first thing that

Hope all goes well… “Friday was the first day we’ve seen real selling,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Equity vol crushed, crude vol smashed, FX vols have no real bid, rates too.” Two weeks prior, with the S&P 50pts lower, and the dollar caught in Yellen’s testimony trap, the market was paying up for vol. So Roadrunner sold. “Covered the last of those shorts today.”

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from March 2014 (see below). Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: China’s Zhou “growth rate has tumbled a bit too much,” China lowers 2nd home down-payment requirement to 40%, Japan Feb IP -3.4% (-2.6% yoy), Sarkozy’s UMP party leads Sunday elections, Arab leaders announce joint military force (confronting Iran), US Feb personal spe