weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “If the government’s intention is clear,” said the CIO, late at night from Hong Kong, “people will always run ahead of it.” Only the rare soul stands defiant before a determined tank. “Beijing wanted a gradual rise in stocks, but received a year’s gain every two weeks.” Policy-makers and regulators found themselves ill-equipped to deal with the proliferation of leverage across

Hope all goes well… “Completely unexpected,” he said, from Europe Saturday night. “They were so close, their differences were meaningless.” Political analysts scurried around the CIO, searching for motives, meanings, machinations. “Did Tsipras ever really want a deal? Did Merkel? Is the die now cast? How will the ECB act Sunday, Monday? When will they drop the hammer on Greek banks? Will they acti

Hope all goes well… “Landing an airplane is a complicated task, but you do the same things every time,” said Eagle, swooping down from Gotham’s highest perch, to visit my new nest. “But surfing, now that is truly complex; you’re riding a wave,” he explained, narrowing focus. “The Fed thinks they’re landing, when actually they’re surfing.” We looked out across Long Island Sound, clouds reflecting o

Hope all goes well… Pulled up to the complex. For his first lacrosse practice. A field of unfamiliar faces. So Mara asked Jackson if he’d like some company. “No Mom, I got this, I’m gonna go rock this town.” And off he went. Which officially ended our move from out West, and kicked off our new life back East. Dusted off an anecdote from back in the day. See you next Sunday with full wknd notes. We

Hope all goes well… “I could give you the greatest reasons on earth why the market’s going to implode,” said Yoda, high in the Rockies. “But the entire intelligent world other than Jeremy Siegel have already listed them.” Draghi asked for more volatility this week and got it. So anxious traders, eyeing surging yields, drilled stocks for the 2nd time in a month. Yet prices barely budged. “It’s natu

Hope all goes well… Taking my one-way ticket to the airport today. Leaving California behind; an extraordinary eleven-year adventure now complete. Heading East, a new chapter. And feeling sentimental about it all, dusted of an anecdote on winding paths (see below). Should be back next Sunday with full wknd notes. But of course moving is more stressful than death, divorce, and getting caught short

Hope all goes well… “So Yellen told us in March she doesn’t want the Euro below 1.07,” said the CIO, uncharacteristically uninspired. “And the ECB has now told us they don’t want it above 1.15,” he yawned. “Tell me, who do you want to fight?” Markets are chopping in ranges. With the exception of Chinese equities. And slowly, quietly, Japan hit 20yr highs, as the S&P 500 made a new record. “Gue

Hope all goes well… “Started getting really excited that yields were backing up as stocks were wobbling,” growled Bulldog. “That’s lights out, that’s where everyone gets eaten alive.” On an ageing planet with ample supply, deficient demand, sluggish growth and large debts, a simultaneous decline in stocks and bonds would be ruinous. And every professional investor knows it. So having just tasted t

Hope all goes well… “It’s like a football game, we’re returning to the field after half-time,” he said, fresh from some face-to-face with Bernanke at SALT. “And while we have no real plan for the third quarter, at least we know we’ll need to hike,” he continued. “But as for the fourth quarter, we know we can’t possibly have a game plan until we see how the third quarter plays out.” After the first