weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “The final 15-minutes on Thursday was crazier than October,” said Roadrunner, the market’s biggest volatility trader. “Option buyers paid any price.” The vol of vol index (what people pay for VIX options) finished at 141; a wk ago it traded 70. In Oct with the S&P 500 at 1815 it topped at 138. “Perhaps a fund or two are blowing up, or the real S&P move hasn’t happened y

Hope all goes well… “Chinese A-Shares rallied 22% in 10-days,” he said, atop NYC. As we discussed investor behavior, cultural differences, psychology. Sharing ideas about the year ahead. “There’s more trading in A-Share futures than the S&P 500.” Chinese index volume exploded in recent weeks. “These guys respond instantaneously.” There are no more eager gamblers than Beijing boys. “The Topix h

Hope all goes well… “Worst race in the world,” answered Osama bin Charlie, disgusted. Jackson took #2 Boy; beaten in the home stretch by some guy named Mack, who having never won much of anything in 45yrs, wasn’t about to let a 12yr old take the Turkey Trophy. Olivia took #2 Girl; three paces behind some hyper-caffeinated Lululemon. Teddy sized up the sorry competition, and tucked himself comforta

Hope all goes well… “I have nothing to say,” he said. “America is headed in one direction, Japan and Europe are headed in another; everything else is a sideshow,” continued the CIO, compounding his capital. “This is not rocket science, it takes no mental horsepower, no subtlety.” It requires an ability to embrace simplicity. “This is the story of Occam’s Razor – never multiply beyond necessity.” O

Hope all goes well… “She asked why I run,” he said. “She wanted to know what I’m running from,” he continued. “I told her I’m not running from something, I’m running toward something.” And he paused, as we watched our oldest sons run around, drifting further away, growing up faster than we dare admit. Because we’re both flat out, building, and love the game, but regret the cost. “I think the truth

Hope all goes well… “We’re not particularly smart, but we’re smart enough to know,” started one of the most intelligent investors in my circle. “It’s been easy to make money for years,” he continued, out-performing stocks yet again. “As others who lag the S&P try to catch up, they take concentrated bets in the same names.” That dynamic’s unstable, look no further than the recent event-driven d

Hope all goes well… “I sat beneath a 100 foot pine,” said the grey-haired legend. “Looking up at peaks,” he continued, pressing his hands to a prayer. Then holding finger-tips together, widened his palms, to form the shape of a mountain. “They pointed to something higher, heaven, the stars.” He paused, holding the position, as we sat in silence, considering our own mountains. “I knew then, somehow

Hope all goes well… “A million thousand infinities all connected,” said Charlie, returning his thumb to gob for effect. It had started like these things do. “To the moon,” he’d said. I replied, “To the moon and back.” Inflationary illusions. Next came the sun, stars. Distant galaxies. Infinity and beyond. But all hyperinflations end abruptly. And keen to teach my kids economic principles so they’l

Hope all goes well… “Is there a goddamn adult in the house?” barked Bulldog. “First the Fed inserts after-the-fact comments into their meeting minutes, saying they’re concerned about dollar strength,” growled Dawg. “What the hell is that? They never discussed the dollar at that meeting, it wasn’t even strong yet.” In a world where the only meaty bone left is American, the dollar needs to rally. Le