weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “What happens when everyone who wanted to buy a 10% correction is already long?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “What happens when they start selling things that made money, to pay for things that lost it?” continued the mkt’s largest S&P trader. “What happens when that pushes stocks and bonds down together?” he asked, pausing. “Yes, what happens when the S&P trades 1

Hope all goes well… “You could’ve bought as many puts as you wanted,” said Roadrunner – an elusive creature, who’s become the S&P’s biggest volatility trader by avoiding traps. “The Vol never lies.” And leaning on that lesson, he and his flock faded the move. “This is just the beginning, it’s still early, it started with the dollar, now it moves to other markets.” Ever since 2009, it was easy

Hope all goes well… I got a beef. You would too if you’d tried to navigate Manhattan all week. As paranoid little dictators from every corner of the planet joined hapless elected leaders at the UN, to discuss matters of existential importance. Like global warming. Which for instance, you contribute to, every time you and your posse of pistol-packing pachyderms take 15 black Escalades 3 blocks to b

Hope all goes well… “I went big, hard, I went early,” grunted Bulldog, licking dollar-drool off his chops. “After Jackson Hole, you knew Draghi was finally doing QE,” continued one of our industry’s largest risk-takers. “Now there’s serious divergence between the ECB and Fed – that’s what moves real money.” German 2yrs yield negative 0.07%; an oxymoron. US 2yrs yield 0.57%. That spread’s at a 7yr

Hope all goes well… “So why have you come to our little country?” asked the policy maker. And having long ago come to terms with my stupidity, I responded simply. “The biggest answers are often found in the smallest places.” He nodded. “New Zealand is the first G10 nation to hike rates in this cycle,” I continued, “and I wonder whether any developed economy is able to withstand higher rates.” He s

Hope all goes well… “You want to be mentally concerned now, awake, alert,” said the CIO. “But you don’t want to express that concern yet in your portfolio,” he continued, his own portfolio performance well ahead of any index you could compare it to, for years running. “These things are supposed to go way past Red,” he continued. Before real bull markets finally turn, they first ignore all the obvi

Hope all goes well… Powerful waves rolled in, lifted by a distant beast. Hurricane Marie, one of those rare Pacific tempests. The day prior had been smooth as glass. Whitewash raced up the beach, exploding on my shins. Stranding vast heaps of kelp and stunned creatures, that, accustomed to summer’s perpetual calm, lacked strong anchors. I looked out as far as I could. Turning a grain of sand over

Hope all goes well… “I call grande puffy chair!” shrieked Olivia, in a faux French accent, staking her claim. You see, she’s still small enough to curl up like a cat. Her brothers piled in behind. Scanning the hotel room for sleeping space. And with one petite queen reserved for Mara and me, our boys assessed the remaining options, none of which looked good. “I call 2nd bed,” grumbled Jackson. Kno

Hope all goes well… “You can sense it, you’re wrong, you look around, realize you’re not alone – and you can’t wait a second, you just run for your life,” snarled Bulldog, out of breath. Guys who sold vol and bought carry, picked up a few pennies this yr. Breakout traders chased their tails. “Got myself back to flat five times this year,” panted one of the industry’s greatest traders. “Then sink m