weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Market was looking for an excuse to show some cracks,” said Roadrunner, having somehow sensed this would happen, without knowing why. WHO declared Ebola an international health emergency, Chinese imports shrank 1.6%, Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s border as Putin banned US & EU food imports, Israel and Hamas resumed fighting. And of course, Obama rejoined Islam’s civi

Hope all goes well… “Did anyone?” asked the CIO, a little too loud, calling late on Saturday. And having known him for many years, through good and bad, up and down, two things were instantly clear; he was asking about money, and had been drinking. So I answered, “No, not really anyone.” He erupted, laughing, a sarcastic, angry laugh, “Not really anyone? Try no one!” And of course he was right. He

Hope all goes well… “It’s like hearing a great Vegas story,” said the CIO, describing the geopolitical trading triumphs that swirl every time some rouge regime rolls the dice. “Your buddy tells his heroic tale and it just drives you crazy.” You want to claim one all your own. “The $100k win at craps, off to the club, the Cristal, the chaos.” There’s just one problem. “It’s not credible, it really

Hope all goes well… “Thursday was the first sort of day,” said Roadrunner, the mkt’s top volatility trader. “We came in long a ton.” And sold here and there, as traders rushed to cover shorts. “It was the first time in ages when the scramble for vol spread across asset classes; stocks, bonds, oil.” There’s geopolitical conflict everywhere. Ukraine. South China Sea. Middle East. Africa. And oddly e

Hope all goes well… “Oh yeah, we’ll look great in a family pic,” said Teddy, tired of being teased, having impulsively cut his own hair with kitchen scissors. “Olivia with her black eye, Jackson with his snaggletooth, and Charlie with his ugly face,” he continued, cracking himself up. Jackson hid his broken front tooth (lacrosse injury). Olivia blushed. But Osama bin Charlie declared jihad,

Hope all goes well… “Good news is still good,” said Yoda, high on grappa. “And bad is still good,” continued the S&P mkt’s biggest local, sailing the Amalfi coast. “Open at 1971, trade to 67, close at 78; that is good.” The cry of boat hands tacked in the distance. “Open 71, trade to 78, close at 50; that is bad.” Our historic rally’s been built by the former, and is absent the latter. “This i

Hope all goes well… “I can’t find anything; Argentina 2038 bonds were trading in the 30’s and 40’s,” said the investor. “But now they’re close to 50,” he said. “Guess there’s some carry left in Venezuela,” he said, more to himself than to me. “And Ivory Coast’s defaulted bonds yield 6%.” We both laughed. Simultaneously seeing that he’d found something after all. ‘Cause when you realize the only th

Hope all goes well… Pushed open the Ministry’s heavy doors. The magnificent building a monument to Argentina’s prosperous past. Behind the shoddy front desk sat seven young women, chatting leisurely. To my right stood two guards, to my left another. I presented my passport, exchanged pleasantries, confirming their English was superior to my Spanglish. And with no other visitors in the grand lobby,

Hope all goes well… Enroute from Argy. Snuck in all sorts of meetings before they shut the joint down for World Cup. Back next Sunday with full weekend notes. In the meantime, dusted off a futbol anecdote from early last year (see below). Week-in-Review: Mon: China trade +7.0% (+6.6 exp), Japan Q1 GDP +6.7% qoq (Q2 exp -4.0%), Japan Apr C/A surplus Y187bln (3rd mthly surplus), S&P +0.1%; Tue: