weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Can you believe we’re partying with this congressman?” whispered the Vice Chairman of Wall Street’s greatest bank, playing blackjack, atop a $1.9trln pile of client chips. At that big Vegas conference. “That’s my favorite quote of the night,” I told Gary, laughing. You see, I just love guys who never forget where they’ve come from, and we’re both public school idiots from NY.

Hope all goes well… “So explain why bond yields decline when the Fed tapers?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “And explain why stocks won’t go down when earnings aren’t going up?” continued the mkt’s biggest S&P local. “Explain why the S&P is at all-time highs when the Russell is below its 200day average?” he asked. “And explain why energy stocks trade like internet stocks when December 2

Hope all goes well… “Can’t believe I’m telling you this,” confessed Dirk, an investment banker, swinging on the pole. I tucked a twenty into his thong. “When I started in the biz, I’d sell companies to private equity firms, they’d make things efficient, hire good sales people, everyone won, even employees.” There were 15 PE firms in his sector, now there are 400. “Promise you won’t reveal my

Hope all goes well… “If you have a strong thesis and get a deep pullback,” started the CIO, a fella who has the former and stopped out due to the latter, “you mechanistically put the position back on.” Long growth and short emerging markets has suffered the kind of swift trend reversal seen every 5-10 yrs. “But only once market positioning gets cleaned up.” Which is closer to done, than just begun

Hope all goes well… “The US is self going now,” he said, scanning the globe, from the soaring heights of a Scandinavian monetary mountain. “They’ll raise rates farther and faster than markets price.” To prevent bubbles. “They’re really behind the curve now, historically speaking.” They’re printing $55bln/mth. Real overnight rates remain -1.5%. US gov’t bond real yields are negative out to 4yrs. “T

Hope all goes well… “I’ll probably regret saying this because it can always get worse,” started the macro CIO, one of the very few who’s made money this year. “I’m fully expecting to walk in Monday and wish I hadn’t done it,” he continued. “Truth is there’s only one reason I did,” he admitted. “I did it because I couldn’t possibly feel worse about this position.” You see, he watched Japan’s bigges

Hope all goes well… “I discover my obsessions when I step back from screens,” admitted one of London’s top CIOs, fresh from some time off. “Used to be the Aussie dollar; that obsession consumed me back in 2012,” he continued, confessing his fatal attractions, bringing a fresh pot of water to a vigorous boil. “Only reason to take on this next one is that there’s no real reason to take it on,” he sa

Hope all goes well… “My…legs…don’t…work,” groaned Osama bin Charlie, in a tone that fell a few pitches short of emergency. Mara and I sat up, puzzled. You see it was Spring Break in Santa Barbara. So we’d hit the mountains. To carve turns with the older three. Ditching our little man all day long, to terrorize ski school; six grueling hours of snow-plow. The groans grew closer, as he elbowed his l

Hope all goes well… “For the first time in 10yrs, CNN ratings have blown through the roof,” said the TV personality. Naturally, given my passion for news, I no longer watch. “You know why?” he asked. I had a couple guesses, but kept quiet. “Every story since they wrote the Bible has a beginning, middle and end.” So now, if a story has no ending, people get trapped, stuck, and don’t know how to mov