weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “Hard to find cheap stocks for the wrong reasons,” admitted the global strategy head for some too-big-to-fail bank, far from home. “But there’s something wrong in a system where money needs to be free,” he said – I think. You see, yet another LaFerrari had just rumbled into valet at Nobu, Malibu. “Yet in the real economy, even at zero, no one’s really borrowing, lending,

Hope all goes well… “Here with the kiddies for the paddle-out, crying,” texted Mara. I paused, in Times Square, opened the photos. Thousands headed into the Pacific, with their surfboards. At sunset. Carrying flowers. To honor the slain UC Santa Barbara kids. The surfers formed a vast circle. Tossed flowers into the middle. And sang in sad celebration of the young lives. Lost. Overall: “The focus

Hope all goes well… “There were robots absolutely everywhere,” said the scientist, developing innovative materials to cut the costs of harnessing solar. “Their productive efficiency was staggering,” he continued. “What takes us hours to do with prototypes for one wafer, they do with sixty wafers in 3 seconds.” The Chinese continue to dominate global production, transforming manufacturing hubs into

Hope all goes well… “Can you believe we’re partying with this congressman?” whispered the Vice Chairman of Wall Street’s greatest bank, playing blackjack, atop a $1.9trln pile of client chips. At that big Vegas conference. “That’s my favorite quote of the night,” I told Gary, laughing. You see, I just love guys who never forget where they’ve come from, and we’re both public school idiots from NY.

Hope all goes well… “So explain why bond yields decline when the Fed tapers?” asked Yoda, high in the Rockies. “And explain why stocks won’t go down when earnings aren’t going up?” continued the mkt’s biggest S&P local. “Explain why the S&P is at all-time highs when the Russell is below its 200day average?” he asked. “And explain why energy stocks trade like internet stocks when December 2

Hope all goes well… “Can’t believe I’m telling you this,” confessed Dirk, an investment banker, swinging on the pole. I tucked a twenty into his thong. “When I started in the biz, I’d sell companies to private equity firms, they’d make things efficient, hire good sales people, everyone won, even employees.” There were 15 PE firms in his sector, now there are 400. “Promise you won’t reveal my

Hope all goes well… “If you have a strong thesis and get a deep pullback,” started the CIO, a fella who has the former and stopped out due to the latter, “you mechanistically put the position back on.” Long growth and short emerging markets has suffered the kind of swift trend reversal seen every 5-10 yrs. “But only once market positioning gets cleaned up.” Which is closer to done, than just begun

Hope all goes well… “The US is self going now,” he said, scanning the globe, from the soaring heights of a Scandinavian monetary mountain. “They’ll raise rates farther and faster than markets price.” To prevent bubbles. “They’re really behind the curve now, historically speaking.” They’re printing $55bln/mth. Real overnight rates remain -1.5%. US gov’t bond real yields are negative out to 4yrs. “T

Hope all goes well… “I’ll probably regret saying this because it can always get worse,” started the macro CIO, one of the very few who’s made money this year. “I’m fully expecting to walk in Monday and wish I hadn’t done it,” he continued. “Truth is there’s only one reason I did,” he admitted. “I did it because I couldn’t possibly feel worse about this position.” You see, he watched Japan’s bigges