weekend notes

Hope all goes well… “In a world of zero rates virtually everywhere, currency movements are random,” explained my big ’ole Greenwich Bulldog, lifting his leg, drenching that fire hydrant. “And new commodity supply keeps coming online, so those markets are going nowhere but sideways to down,” he snorted. “Bonds are now stuck in a range, odds are the bulls can pick up a few pennies, but risk ge

Hope all goes well… “Think about the guy you’ve hated more than anyone in your entire life,” said the CIO. You see, I’d asked what he thought was really going on in DC. “Now imagine you have him by the balls,” he growled, pausing, giving me a moment. “So here’s the thing, you’re not exactly sure what you want to do next,” he continued in a tone that made me grimace. “But you’re certain of one simp

Hope all goes well… “Obama’s a bad trader, simple as that,” explained the political insider, breezing through Santa Barbara. “He adds and adds to losing positions, trades without stops.” Apparently, Summers was never ever going to get the votes he needed. And no votes equals no confirmation. Then we moved on to matters of political intrigue, Yellen, exit options, timetables, the difficulty in trad

Hope all goes well… Back from the bush. With all sorts of wild animal tales. You know, they have the most wonderful collective names for beasts in Kruger Park. Of course, there’s a pride of lions; a parade of elephants. Dazzle of zebra. Parliament of wise old owls. A kettle of vultures, circling upward like steam. Crash of rhino. Leap of leopards. An obstinacy of buffalo; back away slowly ma

Hope all goes well… “So what did you think of Cape Town Mr. Peters?” asked Emraan, my driver, extra early, whisking me off to the airport. We’d spent two-days together, zipping from meeting to meeting, sneaking off to see mountains, beaches, seals, his son’s school. And naturally, I’d ferried out to Mandela’s jail cell. District 6’s desolation. But one stop remained. “It’s like Santa Barbara with

Hope all goes well… “Got two words for you mate – Burning Man,” he said hoarsely, returning from Nevada’s wild spectacle. “But dressed as a unicorn with a belly-full of mushrooms, I couldn’t quite coax a single bird back to my camper,” continued one of the most talented speculators I’ve known, with a unique knack for getting the long-term right. “And as mind-expanding as things were out in t

Hope all goes well. “I need a messy war in Syria, a $20 spike in oil, and new highs in stocks,” he said, punch drunk, knowing the near impossibility of that combo. But it’s been a long summer. And guys who stuck around to fight, got beaten badly in June, as stocks and bonds both fell; the risk-parity bubble punctured. Pop! Then again in July/Aug as gold rallied. While the Dollar surged vs the Real

Hope all goes well. Summer’s over. Back to School Monday’s upon us, in sunny Santa Barbara. Dusted off an Anecdote from a dreary 2010 Autumn. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. All the best, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Chinese new home prices +7.5%, China to expand broadband network, Japan Jul exports +12.2% (Jun +7.4%) imports +19.6% (prev 11.8%) trade deficit Y1trln, Brazil buys more dol

Hope all goes well. Dug up an anecdote from a sunny Santa Barbara summer. Back in 2011. See you again in September, with full weekend notes. Best regards, Eric Week-in-Review: Mon: Japan Q2 GDP 2.6% (Q1 3.8%), Der Spiegel “Greece will need more aid after German election,” Mexico’s Nieto to open oil industry, S&P -0.1%; Tue: Japan machine orders -2.7%, Abe calls for lower corp