players

Had lunch with one of the big real-money bond PM’s in LA. No, not the part-time CNBC anchor. Brilliant guy. Vigilante. Fascinating convo… Macro View: growth improving with obvious risk factors. The fact we haven’t collapsed yet suggest somehow we’ll survive. Biggest risk factor is overzealous Fin-Reg. Best Trades: short inflation swaps in US and EU (our favorite trade too). Buy Libor blow-out

Overall: German regulators panic and spark mayhem. US Fin Reg reform passes despite 3,000 lobbyists at play. Australia slaps 40% tax on commodity producers. As big brother stomped through the underbrush, investors ran for cover, bought hedges, pushed VIX to 46 (closed wk at 40). $5.3trln lost in global equities mtd. Margin clerks took charge; pain ruled the day with a Euro rally as risk assets plunged. Market braced

The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on question “can EUR fall an

Lots of conversation in London with wealthy people about (1) how taxes are going higher, (2) how to avoid them, and (3) how the new Lib-Con Gov’t will try but fail to bring drastic austerity measures. “Move to Ireland. Move to Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore. How much will taxes go up? What’s my pain threshold before I’d be willing to move? Spending cuts and tax hikes will crush economy, etc

Overall: The $1trln shock-and-awe saved the world though plenty of smart investors/traders doubt short & med-term success. The EU went “all in” so we can expect more help if need be. Still, everyone knows it just papers over long-term problems. The failed relief rally gave way to consensus that EUR can only fall. EUR shorts and sentiment hit historic highs. Debate now centers on question “can EU

Overall: Week #6 marked a violent end to the bullish capitulation trade. VIX jumps to 41 from recent lows around 15. Greek 2yrs trade 18%. Fat fingers get blamed for Thursday’s plunge but we all know the story is far bigger. Pimco’s El-Erian provoked panic with view that “crisis is on verge of going global”. If it does go global, panic will be the standard response. Every politician and centra

US Energy Secretary, Dr Steven Chu, is a brilliant man (Obama is thankfully not scared of scientists). He funded a $400mm program this year to fund alt energy research and start-ups. One of my Silicon Valley contacts just met with the guy running the program. He showed 2 key slides in his presentation. One was a picture of the planet with graphics showing population density. The second showed the world from space at

Week #6 marked a violent end to the bullish capitulation trade. VIX jumps to 41 from recent lows around 15. Greek 2yrs trade 18%. Fat fingers get blamed for Thursday’s plunge but we all know the story is far bigger. Pimco’s El-Erian provoked panic with view that “crisis is on verge of going global”. If it does go global, panic will be the standard response. Every politician and central banker

Week #5 of bullish capitulation ends with VIX jumping 5pts. Trench warfare between (1) Greek and Goldman drama plus more China pressure to limit property speculation, and (2) Blow-out earnings and improving global growth leading to rising forecasts for ’10 & ’11. I met 22 investment firms this week and found only one unabashed bull (interestingly he was Chinese). Investors feel the potential downside