players

Hope all goes well… Snuck out to the Tetons with the kids for a little spring skiing. Altitude. Dusted off one of my favorite climbing anecdotes, about risks, managing them. Training. Luck too. See below. Back next Sunday with full wknd notes. Week-in-Review: Mon: OPEC+ cuts oil production 1.16m bpd unexpectedly, Israel CB hiked 25bps (as exp), ECB’s Holzmann says a 50bp hike is still on the cards, Fed’s Bullard says

Anecdote: “In ten years, when we look back at this remarkable period, what will we wish we had started building today?” I asked our investment team. We carve out time each week with no structure, to see what fills the space. One River had just celebrated its 10-year anniversary with seven volatility-trading and trend-following strategies, alpha strategies, bespoke diversifying solutions, and over $3bln in institution

Hope all goes well… “I saw this video of Elon a long time ago, talking about SpaceX [here]. And all these space pioneers were really bashing SpaceX and Elon too. And he was visibly very hurt by that and said these guys were heroes of mine and I wish they would see how hard we’re trying,” said Sam Altman, under increasing scrutiny for his life’s work. He’s the Founder/CEO of OpenAI, creator of ChatGPT4. “I definitely

Hope all goes well… “I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits,” answered Janet Yellen, when asked on Wednesday whether Treasury would circumvent Congress to insure all deposits. Naturally, this accelerated the bank run, as rational economic actors moved their money. “Certainly, we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted,” said Yell

Anecdote: In my early years, captivated by Ayn Rand, I thought often of John Galt’s engine. It converted ambient atmospheric energy into electricity. Atlas Shrugged is fiction, and Galt’s engine is a metaphor of course. But I came to see that our highest purpose is in converting static electricity into motive energy. I think about that often. In a world filled with noise, distraction, waste, those who can convert cha

Anecdote: “They went big last weekend, which was the right thing to do,” said the Chairman, a veteran of financial crises, the two of us discussing the ongoing bank run, how policy can end it. “But the market always tests statements of confidence, whether from companies or the government,” he continued. “This week, at the first real test, policymakers mumbled.” Treasury Secretary Yellen’s responses to Senator Lankfor

Hope all goes well… “The overuse of the term moral hazard is distracting at best,” said the Chairman, no stranger to leading the nation though financial crises. “And at worst, it will lead to bad policy,” he said. “Moral hazard is when you knowingly take a risk in the expectation that if it goes wrong, others will bear the consequences,” he explained. “In this case, depositors were unaware of the risks, and never exp

Anecdote: “Be on the bid when they’re selling. And be the offer when they’re buying.” That’s what they taught us as young pit traders in Chicago. “Don’t have an opinion, those cost you a fortune.” But most of us did anyway. “Know where the orders are, lean on them.” We’d scramble to accumulate long positions just above a big buy order, confident we could sell into that order and get flat, losing little or nothing. An

Hope all goes well… “Closed-door meetings have been going on all day in DC,” said the CIO Saturday night. “They’re calling it the billionaire’s bank,” he said. “If this were 2008, there would be no question a deal would get done, but it’s 2023 and the optics are very different,” he said. “Something will get done before the market opens Monday morning. JP Morgan, Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citi, someone takes this over.