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Where might this lead? he thought, the stars bright. He’d always loved walking at night, shadows, noises that heighten the senses, turning the everyday ordinary into something extraordinary. But mostly, he loved the heavens. And marveled at how the setting sun unveiled the infinite. This new virus seemed sure to sweep the globe, as such things periodically do. In his discussions with scientists, specialists, it appea

“Deglobalization is the most powerful theme in the world,” said the investor. “It will reshape politics, economics and markets in profound ways.” The process has only just begun. “Everyone built global supply chains to produce goods for the US consumer.” In making those capital commitments, they assumed the geopolitical landscape and international trade relations in coming decades will remain unchanged. The process h

Hope all goes well… The ritual began. A retelling of the day’s worst wipe-outs. We had a foot of fresh powder, which for a family accustomed to New Hampshire blue ice, takes some getting used to. Of course, every White Mountain gift comes at a cost, and today’s bill amounted to 25-40mph winds and negative 4-degrees Fahrenheit. Olivia had some hilarious face plants. Teddy had a full yard sale, skis and poles strewn ac

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from 2016 (see below). A discussion with an extraordinary human being, on the long fight for freedom. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (expressed in YoY terms): Mon: China CPI +0.9 to +5.4% (PPI +0.6 to +0.1%), Turkey imposes new controls on currency speculation, Italian industrial production -4.3%, Merkel’s protégé Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer resig

“What’s tomorrow’s test about Mom?” asked Charlie (10), lying on the kitchen couch. “It’s your math placement exam,” answered Mara. “Is it important?” he asked. “No need to be nervous Charlie. F*$%-ing Kumon,” said Mara calmly. [In 2008, Bulldog and I were talking trading, life, kids – seamlessly switching from one to the other. He started his career like most of us; a lucky break on some desk, young and dumb e

Hope all goes well… “Every economist I know just dusted off their dual PhD in virology,” said the CIO. “Is virology even a real word?” he asked, not waiting for an answer. “How can you take seriously their forecasts on China’s Q1 economic collapse, followed by the V-shaped Q2 recovery, Q3 slowdown and Q4 return to trend?” Scattered across his desk were crayon-colored zig zags, tracing out various sell-side prediction

A“Let’s start with what I’d tell a 25-year-old to not do with investment capital,” answered the CIO. He’d been asked how our youth should invest for 10-15yrs. “I’d tell them to not blindly follow their parents and grandparents as they pay ever higher multiples for a shrinking pool of equity assets,” he continued. In 1982 when Baby Boomers were coming of age, they paid a 6.6x Shiller price-to-earnings ratio for the S&

Hope all goes well… “I have come to the conclusion that there will be no fair trial in the Senate. I don’t believe the continuation of this process will change anything. It is sad for me to admit that, as an institution, Congress has failed,” said Lisa Murkowski, Republican Senator. “It has also become clear some of my colleagues intend to further politicize this process, and drag the Supreme Court into the fra

A“Financial markets have capitulated to the secular stagnation narrative,” said the CIO, high atop his prodigious pile. “And in so doing, they have tethered themselves to the wrong inevitabilities – to low interest rates forever, to asymmetric central bank reaction functions, to a negative bond-equity correlation,” he added, peering into the distance. “And now a financial system which is structurally intolerant of in