players

Overall: Kaboom! The earth shook. A manmade tremor. The chubby North Korean kid had popped off another plaything. The dark side of mankind’s technological coin. You see if Apple can waterproof an iPhone 7 supercomputer, any paranoid dictator can eventually miniaturize a nuclear weapon; if we allow him. And we have. Naturally, every coin has two sides, and mankind’s eternal tale is shaped by how we react to our tails.

Overall: “The biggest things tend to be done by people who primarily believe in a mission and are not trying to build a company,” said Mark Zuckerberg in Rome, describing common traits of successful entrepreneurs. “They’re done by teams, not by individuals; and by people who just don’t give up,” he continued. A SpaceX rocket exploded. An awe-inspiring fireball. A shockwave whose force rippled outward in direct propor

“There’s no way out, they need to stimulate through it,” said the CIO. In 1965 the government spent 3.25% of GDP on research and development, today its 1.25%. That missing 2% of America’s $18trln economy equals $360bln of annual R&D investment. Gone baby gone. In 2000, NYC spent 8% of its budget on healthcare and pensions, today that’s 29% and rising. “Taking these factors into account, developed economies have t

Hope all goes well… “The Fed faces the choice between allowing a US bubble to form and blowing up the world,” said the CIO. “And they’re trying to have it both ways.” No one likes facing a dilemma, particularly PhD’s. They’re too smart. “US banks have deleveraged, corporates too. Households deleveraged and the government took on that debt.” America is inoculated from deflation relative to the rest of the world; we’re

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 that’s worth a repeat in the context of promising political dynamics in South Africa, Brazil, India and Argentina (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you next Sunday with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: S&P maintains negative HK outlook, India appoints Urjit Patel central bank governor (inflation haw

Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: S&P maintains negative HK outlook, India appoints Urjit Patel central bank governor (inflation hawk), UK economic surprise index 3yr high, Mexico Q2 quarterly GDP contracts 1st time since 2013 (+2.5% yoy), Fed’s Fischer “inflation within hailing distance of 2%,” S&P 500 trailing 12mth PE hits 25.3x (vs post War avg 19.2x), S&P -0.1%; Tue: China FX basket new lows

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from summer 2015 about quantum transformation (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: Japan GDP +0.2% (exp +0.7%) IP -1.5%, 10yr Gilt yield record low 0.50%, US declares Puerto Rico Zika health emergency, US Empire manufacturing survey -4.8 to -4.2%, S&P +0.3%;

Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: Japan GDP +0.2% (exp +0.7%) IP -1.5%, 10yr Gilt yield record low 0.50%, US declares Puerto Rico Zika health emergency, US Empire manufacturing survey -4.8 to -4.2%, S&P +0.3%; Tue: Shenzen Connect to be launched by year-end, Yen strengthens past 100, RBA minutes upbeat on economy despite rate cut, India wholesale prices +3.6% (2yr high), Russian stocks hit record, German

Hope all goes well… Dusted off an anecdote from late-2014 about market melt-ups (see below). Taking my annual August break from writing. See you again in September with full weekend notes. Week-in-Review (stats in YoY terms): Mon: China exports +2.9% (imports -5.7%), China 10yr yield 2.7% record low, iron ore prices hit 2yr high, OPEC to hold informal Sept meeting, Italy high court approves Renzi constitutional refer